Research Consultant: Jordan country study, Return Implications for Host Economies

Description Please note the closing date for applications is November 20th Background Prosper Global is a leading global organization powered by the belief that a better world is possible. In disaster, in hardship, in more than 40 countries around the world, we partner to put bold solutions into action — helping people triumph over adversity and build stronger communities from within. Now, and for the future. To do this, we know our teams do their best work when they are diverse and every team member feels that they belong. We welcome diverse backgrounds, perspectives, and skills so that we can be stronger and have long-term impact. Prosper Global has developed a Crisis Analysis function to support our programming in the most complex contexts, including Syria, Lebanon, Palestine, Ukraine, and others. The Crisis Analysis supports Prosper Global’s in-country programming as well as the wider humanitarian response in the region through the provision of quality, timely and relevant analytical products. This analysis is grounded in Prosper Global’s position as an operational NGO, keeping our products constructive and relevant for humanitarian, early recovery, and development responders and donors within a given crisis. This consultancy is part of “Strengthening Regional Policy Dialogue and Partnerships on Solutions”, a United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and Prosper Global initiative funded by the Regional Development and Protection Program (RDPP). RDPP is a multi-donor platform managed by the Kingdom of Denmark that has supported refugees and displaced communities in the countries neighboring Syria since 2014; the initiative supports evidence-based advocacy and partnerships on adaptive solutions for refugee and displaced communities. Purpose / Project Description Under this initiative, Prosper Global and UNDP are conducting “Return Implications for Host Economies”, a set of three country studies on Lebanon, Jordan and Syria. The studies examine how Syrian refugee returns since December 2024 affect labor markets, consumer demand, local services and public finances, and investment in Lebanon and Jordan, and how returns shape the same dynamics in the main areas of return in Syria. Each study will be led by a dedicated consultant. Findings from the three studies will be compared to identify common challenges, opportunities and areas of convergence, and to develop regional recommendations to support policy dialogue with host governments, the private sector and local actors, and to inform the planning of UN agencies, donors and humanitarian and development actors. This consultancy covers the Jordan study. Syrian refugees in Jordan have worked mainly in the sectors open to Syrian work-permit holders, such as agriculture, construction and manufacturing. As returns have increased, work permits issued to Syrians have fallen sharply, and a significant share of returns has involved only part of the household. Jordan has a stronger evidence base than other host countries on refugees’ labor market outcomes, notably the Jordan Labor Market Panel Survey, whose 2025 round updates these outcomes; however, most available data are national averages or predate large-scale returns, and returns coincide with wider economic pressures and falling aid budgets. The study will therefore combine national secondary data with primary data collection focused on the most affected sectors and on the localities with the highest concentration of Syrian refugees, and will distinguish between the periods before and after December 2024. Consultant Objectives Document how Syrians contribute to the economy of Jordan as workers, consumers and recipients of public services, by sector and location, and how this has changed since December 2024. Assess how returns are affecting the labor market in the most affected sectors and localities: vacancies, whether they are filled by host-country nationals, other migrant workers or mechanization, and effects on wages, labor costs, informality, supply chains and output. Assess how returns are affecting consumer demand and local markets, including food, retail goods, rented housing and transport, and how changes in cash assistance and remittance flows to Syrian households affect local economies. Assess how returns are affecting local services and public finances: where demand for education, health, water, waste and electricity services has eased, where capacity is underused, and how funding for services shared by host and refugee communities is changing. Assess how businesses and donors are adjusting their hiring, expansion, mechanization, relocation and financing plans in response to returns. Develop country-level recommendations for policy dialogue on options (for example labor regulation, work permits, skills programs and service planning) that could help the economy of Jordan adjust in ways that benefit both host and refugee communities, and contribute to the regional recommendations. Consultant Activities The Consultant will: Review published and ongoing studies on the economic impact of Syrian refugees and their return in Jordan, including work by UN agencies, the World Bank, ILO, research centers and NGOs, to confirm evidence gaps, avoid duplication and refine the research questions. Check data availability on labor, prices and rents, service use, aid flows and returns, including the geographic level, period and access conditions of each source, and recommend which additional components are feasible (for example an exposure index scoring districts by their pre-2024 reliance on Syrian labor and consumption, a comparison of high- and low-exposure areas, a rapid employer survey, remote-sensing or mobility data, analysis of funding flows, or forward-looking scenarios). Finalize the research design, including sampling, locations, sector selection, tools, workplan and risk-mitigation measures, for approval by Prosper Global and UNDP before fieldwork begins. Analyze secondary data covering the five research areas (labor market, consumer demand, local services and public finances, investment, and policy options), with national coverage, drawing on sources such as the Jordan Labor Market Panel Survey 2025, Ministry of Labor work-permit data, labor force surveys, WFP and REACH market monitoring, national price and rent data, service-use data from line ministries, and UNHCR registration and return data. Conduct at least 25 key informant interviews with employers, chambers of commerce and industry, agricultural and construction associations and unions, municipalities, line ministries (including the Ministry of Labor), service providers, donors, banks, and UN and NGO actors. The final number and composition will be set out in the inception report. Conduct at least two sector deep-dives (agriculture and construction are expected; manufacturing may be considered, to be confirmed at inception), covering employers, workers and each sector’s supply chain. Conduct 3 focus group discussions with host-community workers, Syrians who remain in Jordan, and employers or small business owners, separated by gender where needed, in the localities with the highest concentration of Syrian refugees. Triangulate each finding across more than one source, report findings as associations unless the design and data support causal claims, use UNHCR return figures as broad indicators rather than precise counts, and state where other factors (including wider economic pressures in Jordan and falling aid budgets) affect the trends observed. Apply the study’s ethics and conflict-sensitivity principles throughout: neutrality on return (the study neither assesses whether conditions for safe, voluntary and dignified return are met nor advocates for or against returns); language that does not imply a policy preference; informed consent; no personal identifiers in datasets; extra safeguards for refugees and returnees whose legal status is insecure; exclusion from